A growth focused portfolio blending large cap momentum small value tilt and alternative assets
Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Balanced Investors
This setup suits someone who sees themselves as growth‑oriented with a moderately high risk tolerance, even if labeled “balanced.” Ideal goals might include long‑term wealth building, early retirement options, or aggressively growing a nest egg over 10–20 years or more. Comfort with volatility is important, because equity tilts plus bitcoin can create sharp swings, especially in shorter periods. The investor would likely prioritize capital growth over steady income, be okay with seeing significant short‑term drawdowns, and value low costs and simple ETFs rather than trading frequently. A basic understanding of market cycles and the patience to ride through multi‑year rough patches would be key personal traits.
Positions
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State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
SPYM - US78464A8541 60.00% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 15.00% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
SPDR Gold Mini Shares
GLDM - US98149E3036 10.00% -
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)
BTC 5.00%
This portfolio is very equity-heavy with a clear tilt toward the broad US market plus momentum and small value, then a meaningful slice in gold and bitcoin as diversifiers. For a “balanced” label, it actually behaves much more like a growth-oriented portfolio, since there’s no bond or cash buffer and the diversification score is very low. That matters because in sharp market drops, there is little natural cushion. Keeping the core ETF as the main building block makes sense, but the add-ons should be used deliberately. Tightening the structure around a core holding and one or two clear tilts could keep the spirit of the strategy while improving clarity and control of risk.
Historical data is limited for this portfolio, which reduces the confidence in the calculated values.
Growth
With a historic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 20 percent and a max drawdown around 17 percent, the risk‑return profile has looked very strong so far. CAGR is basically the “average speed” per year over the full journey, smoothing out bumps. A relatively shallow drawdown for that level of return suggests the mix has ridden strong markets well, likely helped by momentum and bitcoin during bull runs. But these numbers come from a specific period, largely favorable to US risk assets. Past performance never guarantees future results, so they should be treated as context, not a promise. Periodically stress-testing how this mix might behave in weaker markets can help set realistic expectations.
Due to limited historical data, this may show extreme values that are not realistic.
Projection
The Monte Carlo analysis, which runs 1,000 random “what if” paths using historical patterns, shows a very wide outcome range. At the median, the simulated growth is huge, and even the low-end scenario more or less preserves capital. Monte Carlo is like simulating many alternate timelines, but all are still anchored to the same history; if the future is structurally different, these paths can be misleading. The very high average simulated return also hints that the assumptions are quite aggressive for a “balanced” risk label. Treat these projections as optimistic scenarios rather than baselines. Building plans around more conservative expectations and viewing upside as a bonus can keep decisions grounded.
Asset classes
- Stocks 25%
- Other 15%
- Cash 0%
On paper, the breakdown shows stock and “other” (gold and bitcoin) as the main buckets, with no bonds, cash, or defensive income assets. For a supposed balanced profile, this is closer to an aggressive multi‑asset mix that leans entirely on growth and alternative hedges rather than traditional fixed income. That can work well in low‑rate or inflationary periods but can feel punishing in equity bear markets when there’s no stable ballast. The allocation to gold is a helpful stabilizer over long cycles, and bitcoin adds asymmetrical upside with high risk. Layering in at least one steadier return stream could smooth the ride without completely diluting the growth orientation.
Sectors
- Financials 6%
- Technology 6%
- Industrials 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Telecommunications 2%
- Energy 2%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Health Care 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 0%
The sector breakdown shown (tech, financials, industrials, consumer, etc.) looks surprisingly flat because most exposure is reported through broad ETFs, and detailed sector weights are effectively wrapped inside them. In reality, a US large‑cap core plus momentum and small value tilts will still cluster heavily in economically sensitive sectors like technology, consumer, and financials, similar to major US benchmarks. This alignment with broad market patterns is generally healthy, but it also means vulnerability when growth sectors sell off or when interest rates spike. Keeping an eye on whether any single theme becomes dominant over time can help avoid accidental concentration, especially if momentum keeps pulling toward the same hot areas.
Regions
- North America 25%
- Latin America 0%
- Asia Emerging 0%
- Europe Developed 0%
- Africa/Middle East 0%
The geographic data points almost everything to North America, consistent with a S&P 500‑anchored portfolio plus US‑focused tilts. That tight alignment with the US market has been a big tailwind over the last decade and helps explain the strong results. At the same time, it leaves little exposure to other developed or emerging regions, so outcomes are heavily tied to US economic and policy cycles. Concentrated home‑country exposure can feel comfortable but increases single‑region risk. Introducing even a modest global slice would typically improve diversification, but staying US‑centric can still be sensible if the goal is simplicity and a belief in US market leadership, as long as that concentration is intentional.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 6%
- Mega-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 5%
- Small-cap 5%
- Mid-cap 2%
The market cap mix shows meaningful exposure to mega and big companies through the core and momentum ETF, plus small and micro caps via the small‑cap value ETF. That barbell between huge, established firms and smaller, more volatile names creates interesting diversification inside equities themselves. Large caps usually provide steadier earnings and more liquidity, while small value stocks can offer higher long‑term return potential at the cost of bumpier paths. This combination is well‑aligned with many factor‑based approaches and can be powerful for patient investors. Keeping the small‑cap value slice at a size that won’t cause panic during sharp drawdowns is key to actually sticking with the strategy over time.
Redundant positions
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High correlationState Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETFInvesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
The core S&P 500 ETF and the S&P 500 momentum ETF are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move in the same direction at similar times. Correlation is basically how often assets “dance together.” When two holdings behave almost identically, they do not add much diversification, even if their labels differ. Here, the momentum ETF mostly layers extra tilt on top of the same large‑cap universe the core fund already covers. The combination is not bad, but it may create more complexity than benefit. Simplifying overlapping pieces while keeping the desired style tilt can make the portfolio cleaner and easier to manage without losing the main exposure.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.92%
The overall dividend yield under 1 percent shows this setup is firmly growth‑oriented and not designed for income. Dividends are the cash payments companies make to shareholders; they can help smooth returns and support withdrawals, but high payouts often come from slower‑growing firms. The small‑cap value ETF offering the highest yield fits the stereotype of value stocks paying more income. For someone reinvesting everything, a low yield is not a problem and can even be a sign of growth focus. Anyone needing regular cash flow, though, would likely find this structure too lean and might prefer at least one more income‑friendly component to reduce reliance on selling shares.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- SPDR Gold Mini Shares 0.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) 0.45%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
The overall cost level is impressively low, with a total expense ratio around 0.08 percent despite holding a pricier bitcoin vehicle. Expense ratios are the annual fees charged by funds; small differences compound meaningfully over decades. The use of low‑cost index and smart‑beta ETFs is a strong positive and aligns with best practices for long‑term investors. The bitcoin trust is understandably more expensive due to its structure, but its small allocation keeps the impact manageable. Keeping this cost discipline while any changes are made is important. When considering alternatives or new funds, maintaining or lowering the blended fee level would help preserve this clear advantage.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests that, using only these existing building blocks, a reshuffle could achieve a much higher expected return at a similar or even slightly lower risk level. The “efficient frontier” is just the set of mixes that give the best trade‑off between risk and return for a given lineup. The note about first trimming overlapping, highly correlated pieces makes sense: removing redundancy can open room for more distinct exposures. However, modeled “optimal” allocations often push toward extremes that might be uncomfortable in real life. Any move toward a more “efficient” point should be balanced against emotional tolerance, ease of sticking with the plan, and non‑quantitative goals like simplicity.
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