An allegedly balanced portfolio that is actually an equity roller coaster in a nice sensible outfit
Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Balanced Investors
This setup fits someone who says they want “balance” but actually craves growth and can stomach real swings. It suits a reasonably long time horizon — think decade-plus — and a personality that doesn’t panic when markets drop 20–30%. There’s a hint of nerdy curiosity here: factor tilts, small caps, and momentum scream “I’ve read a few too many investing blogs.” Goals likely lean toward building wealth aggressively rather than preserving it gently. This person can handle seeing their account jump around, as long as the long-term trajectory trends up. If emotional resilience or time horizon is shorter, though, this mix is misaligned with the calm the label suggests.
Positions
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 45.00% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF
AVES - US0250723725 10.00% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
XMMO - US46137V4648 10.00%
This setup calls itself “Balanced,” but it’s 99% stocks and 1% “I swear this is cash.” That’s not balanced; that’s an all‑equity costume party with a single boring guest in the corner. The core is fine: 45% S&P 500 with 15% broad international is textbook. Then you slam on three chunky small/value tilts and one midcap momentum fund like you discovered factor investing on YouTube at 2 a.m. The structure is aggressive, growthy, and coherent, but the label is lying. If true balance is the goal, introduce some bonds or defensive assets so the portfolio stops pretending and actually behaves like a Profile_Balanced setup.
Growth
Historically, this thing has ripped: a 13.6% CAGR means $10k hypothetically grows to around $36k in 10 years, assuming numbers behave nicely. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is just your “average speed” over a long drive, ignoring the potholes. And there were potholes: a max drawdown around –24% is not “balanced,” it’s “equity-heavy with decent pain tolerance.” Relative to a plain-vanilla 60/40, this would likely have outperformed but with more gut checks on the way. Past data is like last season’s weather, though — helpful vibe check, not a forecast. If stomach comfort matters, dial risk down; if growth is priority, accept the drama.
Projection
Monte Carlo simulation is basically running thousands of alternate timelines to see how your portfolio might behave if markets go wild in different ways. Your numbers say a median outcome of about +382% (ending at 482.3% of start), with the pessimistic 5th percentile at 80.1%. Translation: in 1 out of 20 bad-luck worlds, you could roughly break even or lose a chunk; in typical worlds, you do very well. The 14.8% simulated annual return screams “optimistic equity party.” But simulations are built on historical patterns and assumptions — they’re like a video game physics engine, not real gravity. If relying on this for real-life plans, consider building in a safety buffer or a boring sleeve of lower-volatility assets.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Cash 1%
- Other 0%
- No data 0%
Asset classes: 99% stocks, 1% cash, 0% anything that might help you sleep in a crash. For something labeled “balanced,” this is basically an equity max‑effort cosplay with a token emergency exit. Stocks are great for long-term growth, but when everything is risk-on, there’s nowhere to hide when markets collectively faceplant. Bonds, real estate, or other diversifiers can act like seatbelts: they don’t make the car faster, they just keep your face out of the windshield. If the time horizon is decades and nerves are steel, fine — stay stock-heavy. If the word “balanced” is supposed to mean anything, consider adding at least one genuinely defensive asset class.
Sectors
- Technology 23%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector spread is actually suspiciously sane: tech 23%, financials 17%, industrials and consumer cyclicals not far behind. This basically mirrors a global-ish equity index with a mild “I like capitalism and shiny things” tilt. No ridiculous 40% tech addiction, no meme-level concentration. That said, everything here still rides on the global business cycle — cyclicals, financials, and industrials will all sulk together in a recession. Think less “laser-focused sector bet” and more “broad-market storm, hope you packed a coat.” To smooth out the blowups, tilt a bit more toward sectors that hold up in downturns or pair this with non-equity ballast instead of pretending diversification across only risky sectors is enough.
Regions
- North America 67%
- Europe Developed 10%
- Asia Emerging 7%
- Asia Developed 6%
- Japan 6%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Australasia 2%
- Latin America 1%
- Europe Emerging 0%
Geography screams “America first, but I skimmed a Boglehead forum.” About 67% in North America with the rest sprinkled across Europe, Japan, Asia, and some token emerging markets. For a US-based investor, that’s actually more global than average — most people are 80–90% home bias — so, oddly, this is one of the more grown-up parts. Still, it’s heavily tied to developed markets; emerging markets are present but not dominating. Global diversification is like not putting your entire life’s happiness in one job or one city. This mix is decent, but if the goal is truly global risk spread, a slightly higher emerging slice or more non-US diversification could make it less “USA plus guests.”
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 30%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 24%
- Small-cap 15%
- Micro-cap 5%
Market cap mix is where things get spicy: 30% mega, 25% big, 24% mid, 15% small, 5% micro. That’s a lot more small and micro than a standard global index, which is usually mega-and-large-cap obsessed. You’ve basically taken a normal index and said, “What if we added extra chaos?” Smaller companies can juice returns over decades but are drama magnets in crashes. This isn’t inherently bad — it’s a deliberate growth and factor tilt — but calling this “balanced” is like calling a drag race “efficient commuting.” If volatility freakouts are a concern, consider trimming the small/micro tilt; if long-term wealth compounding is the priority, just be mentally prepared for wild swings.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.60%
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.90%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.68%
Total yield at 1.68% is basically “we tried, but we’re here for growth.” Some of the funds throw off 2–3%, others barely nod at dividends. That’s fine for an accumulation phase where reinvesting income is the move. But anyone dreaming of living off yield alone here is kidding themselves — this is a total-return portfolio, not a paycheck machine. Dividends feel comforting, but they’re just one piece of return, not free money. If future income is a real goal, either increase the allocation to higher-yielding strategies later in life or plan on a sensible withdrawal strategy that sells shares instead of worshipping the yield number.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.34%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.15%
Costs are almost suspiciously decent. A total TER around 0.15% means you avoided the “I love high-fee active managers” trap. Vanguard’s core funds are dirt cheap, and while the Avantis and Invesco pieces are pricier, they’re still reasonable for factor-tilt strategies. Think of fees like sand in your engine — a bit is fine, too much and you’re not going anywhere. You’ve kept the sand to a light dusting. Still, always worth asking: is each fancy factor ETF actually pulling its weight versus a simpler, cheaper core? If the answer over time is “not really,” trimming the expensive toys could clean up both complexity and cost.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Risk vs return here is basically: “I choose violence, but efficiently.” You’re taking more risk than a true balanced portfolio, but you’re at least doing it in a structured way across factors, regions, and sizes. Efficient Frontier is just the curve of “best return you could get for each level of risk.” You’re clearly sitting on the higher-risk side of that line, aiming for growth, not comfort. The real issue is labeling: calling this profile “Balanced” is borderline false advertising. For someone with a long horizon and strong nerves, this is a decent growth engine. For anyone expecting mild volatility, this is a rude awakening waiting to happen; dialing in some bonds or lower-volatility stuff would move it closer to a truly efficient risk-return trade-off.
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