An allegedly balanced portfolio that is actually a high octane US stock rocket with one engine
Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Balanced Investors
This setup fits someone who talks about “long term” with a straight face and secretly enjoys market drama. The personality here is optimistic, comfortable with big swings, and heavily focused on growth over comfort. Goals are probably aggressive wealth building, not steady income or preservation. The time horizon needs to be long – think 10+ years – and the stomach needs to handle double-digit drawdowns without panic-selling. There’s also a bit of overconfidence in recent US large-cap dominance baked in. It’s suitable for someone who can handle seeing ugly red numbers on a screen and still keep their hands off the sell button.
Positions
-
State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
SPYM - US78464A8541 60.00% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00%
This structure screams “I love US large cap growth and I do not care about anything else.” Sixty percent straight S&P 500, another 20% on the Nasdaq 100, 10% small cap value tossed in like seasoning, and 10% momentum for extra drama. That’s not balance; that’s a fan club for one asset class with slightly different outfits. Compared with a typical balanced mix (think stocks plus some bonds and maybe real diversification), this thing is basically all gas no brakes. If the goal is true balance, something needs to counter all that equity risk instead of just remixing it with factor buzzwords.
Growth
A 16.5% CAGR looks amazing on paper – that’s the “everything went right” highlight reel. CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, is like your average speed on a road trip where you only remember the downhill parts. But a max drawdown of about -25% means this thing will absolutely punch you in the gut during bad markets. Against a plain vanilla stock index, it’s been strong, but that’s heavily boosted by a very US mega-cap-friendly decade. Past returns are yesterday’s weather: useful to glance at, dumb to worship. The key move now is stress-testing expectations, not assuming the party never ends.
Projection
Those Monte Carlo numbers are what happen when you feed a great recent history into a simulation and assume vibes stay perfect. Monte Carlo is basically rolling dice thousands of times to see possible futures, then pretending the dice aren’t biased by the past. A 20% annualized projection and a 5th percentile still up 170% is… extremely optimistic. Reality will almost certainly be messier, slower, and uglier at times. Future markets will not politely copy-paste the last decade. Treat those outputs as “best guess under rosy assumptions,” not a prophecy. A cooler approach would be to plan for lower returns and rougher paths and be pleasantly surprised if it beats that.
Asset classes
- Stocks 40%
- Cash 0%
Let’s be blunt: this is a one-asset-class portfolio cosplaying as diversified. You’ve basically got stocks and more stocks, with 0% cash and zero sign of bonds, real assets, or anything that behaves differently when equities tank. Calling this “balanced” is like calling an all-espresso diet “hydrated.” When stocks are up, this rides the wave. When stocks are down, there’s nowhere to hide. A genuinely balanced setup usually mixes assets that don’t all panic at the same time. Right now, everything here screams “equity beta,” which is a nerdy way of saying it rises and falls with the stock market like a loyal but reckless sidekick.
Sectors
- Technology 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Financials 5%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Industrials 3%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Health Care 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 0%
Sector-wise, this is a stealth tech-and-growth groupie. Tech plus communication plus consumer cyclicals dominate, with defensive stuff like utilities, staples, and healthcare looking like afterthoughts. That’s fun in a boom, less fun when high-growth names get repriced and suddenly the “future of innovation” becomes the “past of your money.” Most broad indexes tilt growthy these days, but stacking Nasdaq on top of S&P plus a momentum fund just cranks that tilt harder. A more grounded setup would avoid piling multiple growth-heavy vehicles on top of each other and give boring sectors a bit more love so the whole thing doesn’t hinge on the same trendy themes.
Regions
- North America 39%
- Europe Developed 0%
- Latin America 0%
- Asia Emerging 0%
- Africa/Middle East 0%
Geography: North America or bust, apparently. With essentially 100% in North America, this thing acts like the rest of the world doesn’t exist or doesn’t matter. That’s cute until US valuations stretch further, the dollar swings, or some non-US market quietly outperforms while this stays welded to one economic engine. A lot of investors are accidentally home-biased; this portfolio is aggressively so. While global exposure doesn’t guarantee better returns, it at least spreads political, currency, and economic risk. Right now, if Uncle Sam sneezes, this portfolio catches pneumonia. Even a modest international slice could turn this from “USA fan club” into something closer to globally aware.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 14%
- Large-cap 12%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 5%
- Mid-cap 4%
The market cap mix is basically “big dogs first, crumbs for everyone else.” Heavy mega and big caps dominate, with a small 10% tilt toward small cap value trying to look brave. That tiny slice is doing all the “diversification” work, which is like putting one backup dancer on stage and calling it a chorus line. Large caps and megacaps are great until they’re all priced for perfection and growth expectations wobble. Small and mid caps, done in a meaningful way, can add different return drivers and sometimes shine in different cycles. Right now, this setup is mostly praying the giants keep winning forever.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.97%
A total yield under 1% is the investing equivalent of “don’t rely on me for rent.” This is clearly a growth-first, income-last setup. Dividend yield is just the yearly cash paid out divided by price, and here it’s saying: “You’re here for price swings, not cash flow.” That’s fine for long-term growth chasers who reinvest everything, but terrible if anyone expects this to meaningfully fund spending. If income is even remotely a goal, this structure needs a rethink. For now, it’s a capital appreciation junkie, not a paycheck generator. That also means in downturns there’s not much income cushion to make the ride feel less painful.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio isn’t shooting itself in the foot. A total TER around 0.07% is impressively low; you basically managed not to tip the waiter 40% by accident. The Avantis small cap value at 0.25% is mildly higher but still reasonable for what it is. Low fees mean more of the returns actually stick, which is especially important when markets cool off and the easy double-digit gains of the past aren’t handing out freebies. That said, cheap does not equal smart. You’ve got a nicely priced ticket to a roller coaster that might be rougher than your risk label pretends.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
From a risk–return efficiency angle, this is like buying a sports car and then labeling it “family safe.” You’re taking near full-equity risk while pretending this is “balanced,” and leaving a lot of room to smooth the ride without completely murdering returns. Efficient Frontier is the fancy way of saying “best trade-off between risk and return for a given level of risk.” Right now, the trade-off is skewed toward excitement over resilience. It might be fine for someone with decades ahead and a strong stomach, but the mismatch between the “balanced” label and the actual all-equity behavior is doing nobody any favors when volatility spikes.
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