A tech drunk America obsessed portfolio pretending it is diversified and shockingly getting away with it
Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Growth Investors
This portfolio fits someone with a strong stomach, a long runway, and a bit of a “go big or go home” streak. Think high risk tolerance, willing to watch double‑digit drops without panic-selling, and firmly focused on growth over income. The mindset here is: “I believe in US giants and tech, and I’m fine riding the roller coaster for years.” It suits a long time horizon where short‑term swings are just background noise. Planning discipline might be a little behind the enthusiasm, though; there’s a hint of overconfidence in recent winners and not much interest in safety nets or global balance.
Positions
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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 55.00% -
Invesco S&P 500® Top 50 ETF
XLG - US46137V2337 35.00% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 10.00%
Structurally this thing is three flavors of the same ice cream: 55% total US market, 35% top 50 US giants, 10% semis. That’s not diversification; that’s zooming in on the same picture three times and calling it art. The top-50 ETF and the total market ETF heavily overlap, so you’re basically paying twice to own Apple, Microsoft, and their megacap friends. A “growth” label doesn’t magically make redundancy smart. A cleaner setup would trim the overlapping giant-cap exposure, keep one broad core holding, and then add truly different ingredients (like other regions or less correlated assets) instead of extra helpings of the same burger.
Growth
On paper the past looks gorgeous: an 18.25% CAGR means $10k hypothetically grew to roughly $44k over ten years. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is just your average speed over a wild road trip. But that -32.9% max drawdown? That’s the part where you hit the ditch. Compared loosely to broad US stocks, you basically rode the same wave but turned the “growth and tech” dial up, which helped in the last decade’s tech party. The catch: this party doesn’t run forever. Past data is like yesterday’s weather — useful, but it won’t guarantee future sunshine. Expect future returns to be less magical than the backtest.
Projection
The Monte Carlo results scream “optimistic sci‑fi.” Monte Carlo just means the computer rolls a thousand different what‑if futures using historic‑style volatility. A 50th percentile outcome of +1,656% and average simulated return over 25% annually is fantasy‑camp territory. It’s basically assuming the last decade’s tech bonanza happens on loop. All 1,000 simulations being positive is another red flag that the inputs are sugar‑coated. Real markets throw in recessions, rate shocks, bubbles bursting — not just gentle dips. Treat those numbers as “best‑case fan fiction,” not a plan. A more grounded approach would assume lower returns, keep contributions high, and size risk so a nasty decade doesn’t nuke your goals.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
- Cash 0%
- Other 0%
Asset class “diversification” here is a joke: 100% stocks, 0% cash, 0% anything else. This is the financial equivalent of an all‑caffeine diet — works great until the crash. For a growth profile, heavy equity makes sense, but 100% means every correction punches your whole net worth at once. Assets like bonds, cash reserves, or other low‑correlation stuff usually act as seatbelts: they don’t make the car faster, but they help you survive the crash. Right now, you’ve got airbags removed to save weight. If the time horizon is long and stomach is strong, fine — but even then, adding a modest slice of more defensive assets could make the ride survivable without killing long‑term growth.
Sectors
- Technology 44%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector mix translation: 44% tech plus 10% semis on top, then a sprinkling of everything else so it looks “balanced.” Tech addiction detected. Communication Services at 11% is basically “more tech in disguise,” and Financials, Healthcare, Industrials all sit in the shadow of the chip and software gods. This worked when tech and semis could do no wrong; when they stumble, half your portfolio can drop in sync. Think of sectors like different band members: you’ve cranked the lead guitarist to max and muted the drummer and bassist. Dial the tech tilt down a bit and give some other sectors room so one earnings season doesn’t decide your whole year.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Europe Developed 1%
- Asia Emerging 0%
- Latin America 0%
Geography-wise, this is “America or bust” at 98% North America. It’s patriotic, sure, but not exactly worldly. US markets have crushed it recently, which makes this look genius, but that’s recency bias: assuming what just worked will keep working. Other developed and emerging regions barely register here, so if the US goes through a long meh phase, you’re chained to it. International exposure is like having a second job in another city: if one economy slows, the other might keep paying. No need to swing to 50% overseas, but nudging some allocation outside the US would reduce the risk that all your bets depend on one country’s policy, politics, and central bank mood.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 52%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap mix is mega‑cap royalty: 52% mega, 31% big, then token amounts of mid, small, and micro. You basically built a fan club for the S&P 50 and called the rest “supporting cast.” That means your fate is tied to a handful of giant names — the same “Magnificent whatever-number” everyone obsesses over. When they win, you look brilliant; when they collectively faceplant, there’s not enough small or mid‑cap ballast to soften the hit. Market-cap diversification is like having more players on the bench: smaller companies add different growth drivers. Shaving a bit off the mega obsession and letting mid/small caps breathe could spread risk without abandoning growth.
Redundant positions
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High correlationInvesco S&P 500® Top 50 ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Correlation-wise, the two big holdings — total US market and top 50 — are basically clones wearing different hats. Highly correlated just means they move together like best friends leaving the same party at the same time. That kills the whole point of owning multiple funds: you’re adding complexity and cost without adding true difference. So when the US large‑cap market drops, both funds dive in sync, and your “three‑ETF” setup behaves like a single, oversized US‑growth bet. Cleaning this up could be simple: keep one broad core, then pair it with stuff that actually dances to a different beat instead of two nearly identical tracks on repeat.
Dividends
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Top 50 ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.88%
A 0.88% total yield is basically pocket change — this portfolio clearly doesn’t care about income. That’s not bad for a growth tilt, just honest: the strategy is “rely on price gains, not checks in the mail.” Dividends are those small, regular payouts companies give shareholders; here, they’re more of a side quest than the main game. The risk is that in a flat or choppy decade, low dividends give you less psychological comfort and less cash flow to reinvest. If long‑term growth is the main mission, low yield is fine, but someone who wants actual spending money from investments would need a meaningful shift toward more income‑oriented holdings.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Invesco S&P 500® Top 50 ETF 0.20%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.12%
Costs are the one area where this setup doesn’t embarrass itself: a 0.12% total expense ratio is impressively cheap. That’s “you actually clicked the right ETFs” territory. The Vanguard position at 0.03% is basically free; the 0.20% and 0.35% on the other funds are tolerable but not heroic. Still, low fees don’t fix a lopsided strategy — it’s like getting a discount on a slightly dubious tattoo. If you simplify holdings (drop redundant overlap) and keep the low-cost core, you preserve the fee advantage while also improving structure. Just don’t start adding random pricier niche products to “spice it up” and accidentally double the total fees for no real gain.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
From a risk–return efficiency angle, this is a loud, flashy portfolio that’s leaving free points on the table. Efficiency here just means getting the most return per unit of pain, not chasing unicorns where risk magically disappears. With massive overlap and heavy tech/US/megacap concentration, you’re accepting a lot of drawdown risk that isn’t fully compensated by unique sources of return. The historical CAGR looks great, but that’s largely the US mega‑growth story, not some genius optimization. A sharper setup would remove overlapping funds, bring in assets that actually zig when your core holdings zag, and size the risk so a 30–40% hit doesn’t derail the whole long‑term plan.
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