The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Balanced Investors
This portfolio suits an investor with a balanced risk profile who is seeking growth through a combination of equities and precious metals. The investor likely has a medium to long-term investment horizon and is comfortable with significant exposure to the technology sector and precious metals. Such an investor is willing to accept higher volatility in exchange for the potential of above-average returns.
This portfolio is uniquely structured, with a significant emphasis on precious metals and technology. The allocation includes 28% in a total stock market ETF and 22% in an S&P 500 ETF, showcasing a strong foundation in U.S. equities. However, the portfolio stands out for its substantial investment in precious metals, with 17.5% in silver and 15% in gold ETFs. Additionally, a notable 12% is invested in a single technology stock, Lam Research Corp, complemented by 5.5% in a technology sector ETF. This composition indicates a single-focused diversification strategy, leaning heavily towards technology and precious metals.
Historically, the portfolio has exhibited a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.39%, with a maximum drawdown of -35.92%. These figures suggest a relatively high return potential but also significant risk, as evidenced by the substantial drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 44 days further underscore the portfolio's volatility. Such performance metrics are indicative of the portfolio's aggressive growth strategy, which may not be suitable for all investors.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, which project future performance based on historical data, the portfolio has a wide range of outcomes. The 50th percentile projection suggests a 1,062% return, indicating strong growth potential. However, it's crucial to understand that these projections are based on past performance, which is not a reliable indicator of future results. The simulation's optimistic view should be balanced with an understanding of inherent market uncertainties.
The portfolio's asset allocation is divided into 67% stocks and 33% other, primarily precious metals. This allocation indicates a higher risk tolerance, as stocks and precious metals can exhibit significant price volatility. While the "other" category helps diversify away from purely stock-based risk, the heavy concentration in precious metals is unusual and may not provide the broad-based diversification benefits typically sought through asset class diversification.
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards technology, constituting 35% of the allocation. This concentration in technology, alongside smaller exposures to financial services, consumer cyclicals, and other sectors, suggests a growth-oriented strategy. However, such a heavy reliance on a single sector increases the portfolio's susceptibility to sector-specific risks, including regulatory changes and technological disruptions.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely focused on North America (67%), with no exposure to developed Europe, Asia, or emerging markets. This geographic concentration enhances exposure to U.S. market performance but limits potential benefits from global diversification. Expanding geographic exposure could mitigate risks associated with regional economic downturns and provide access to growth opportunities in other parts of the world.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for big (29%) and mega-cap (25%) companies, with minimal exposure to small and micro-cap stocks. This bias towards larger companies may contribute to stability during market fluctuations but could limit potential high-growth opportunities found in smaller cap stocks. Diversifying across different market caps could enhance the portfolio's growth potential while managing risk.
The portfolio contains highly correlated assets, particularly between the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This redundancy may limit diversification benefits, as these assets tend to move in tandem. Reducing overlap by reallocating investments from one of these ETFs could enhance the portfolio's diversification without significantly altering its risk-return profile.
The dividend yield across the portfolio averages to 0.64%, with individual yields ranging from 0.40% to 1.10%. While dividends contribute to total return, the portfolio's yield is relatively modest, reflecting its growth orientation over income generation. Investors seeking higher income may consider reallocating towards assets with higher dividend yields.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) averages to 0.17%, which is relatively low, indicating cost efficiency in fund selection. Lower costs can significantly enhance long-term returns by reducing the drag on performance. This cost structure is commendable and suggests a thoughtful approach to selecting investment vehicles.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
The portfolio could benefit from optimization to improve its risk-return profile. The Efficient Frontier suggests that reallocating investments to reduce overlap in highly correlated assets could enhance returns for a given level of risk. Focusing on diversifying across more asset classes, sectors, and geographies could further optimize the portfolio's performance.
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