Cautious multi factor portfolio with strong US tilt and surprisingly high historic growth profile

Risk profile

  • Secure
    Speculative

The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.

Diversification profile

  • Focused
    Diversified

The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.

What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for

Cautious Investors

This setup fits an investor who is cautious by temperament but still wants meaningful long‑term growth rather than heavy capital preservation. They likely have a multi‑decade horizon or at least 7–10 years before major withdrawals and can handle moderate market swings as long as drawdowns don’t become extreme. Goals might include building retirement wealth growing a nest egg tax efficiently and keeping up with or beating inflation. They appreciate diversification and low costs prefer broad funds over stock picking and are open to small thematic or alternative bets like gold or digital assets as satellite positions while keeping a large‑cap diversified core as the main engine.

Positions

  • iShares S&P 500 Value ETF
    IVE - US4642874089
    12.09%
  • BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation
    DYNF - US09290C1036
    10.80%
  • iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
    IEMG - US46434G1031
    9.43%
  • iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
    IVW - US4642873099
    8.70%
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
    IVV - US4642872000
    7.85%
  • iShares S&P 100 ETF
    OEF - US4642871010
    7.73%
  • iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF
    IUSB - US46434V6130
    7.71%
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF
    EFV - US4642888774
    7.42%
  • Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF
    AIQ - US37954Y6326
    4.00%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF
    QUAL - US46432F3394
    3.99%
  • iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
    MTUM - US46432F3964
    3.94%
  • iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF
    THRO
    3.89%
  • iShares Gold Trust
    IAU - US4642852044
    3.36%
  • iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF
    SGOV - US46436E7186
    2.36%
  • Global X Funds
    SHLD - US37960A5294
    2.12%
  • iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLH - US4642886539
    1.93%
  • iShares Core International Aggregate Bond ETF
    IAGG - US46435G6724
    1.89%
  • iShares Bitcoin Trust
    IBIT - US46438F1012
    0.79%

This portfolio is built mostly from equity ETFs with a modest slice of bonds plus small allocations to gold cash and bitcoin. For a “cautious” risk label the roughly four‑fifths equity share is on the punchy side but still broadly diversified across factors styles and themes. This equity‑heavy tilt matters because it mainly drives long‑term growth and short‑term volatility. A more classic cautious setup would usually lean more on high‑quality bonds and short‑term instruments. It could be worth checking whether the current equity level truly matches your comfort in a bad year and gradually adjusting toward a slightly higher bond or cash share if capital stability is a top priority.

Growth Info

Historically the portfolio has done extremely well with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20.8% and a maximum drawdown around –14.3%. CAGR is the “per year on average” growth rate over time similar to your average speed on a long road trip. The relatively shallow drawdown is impressive given the high equity slice and suggests past markets were kind to this mix of factors and themes. But past returns especially very strong ones can be misleading and may not repeat. It may help to mentally stress test for a deeper drop say 25–30% and decide whether that kind of temporary hit would still feel acceptable.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis uses 1 000 simulations to project many possible future paths based on how similar portfolios behaved historically. Think of it as rolling the dice 1 000 times on returns while respecting past volatility patterns. The median result points to very large future growth and even the lower‑end 5th percentile outcome is still strongly positive. That looks great on paper but simulations borrow heavily from history and can understate the impact of regime shifts inflation spikes or long flat markets. It would be sensible to use the projections as a rough range not a promise and plan spending and savings assuming something closer to middle‑of‑the‑road rather than best‑case outcomes.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    82%
  • Bonds
    11%
  • Other
    4%
  • Cash
    3%
  • No data
    0%

The asset‑class breakdown is roughly 82% stock 11% bonds 4% other (mainly gold and bitcoin) and 3% cash. For a cautious profile that’s equity‑tilted but still broadly diversified across risk types. Stocks supply most of the growth while bonds and cash help cushion volatility and provide dry powder during pullbacks. Gold can sometimes hedge inflation or market stress and bitcoin adds a tiny high‑risk high‑reward element. A more textbook cautious mix might lift high‑quality bonds and short‑term instruments closer to a third of the portfolio. Gradual rebalancing into additional bond exposure could smooth the ride without abandoning the growth focus especially as your time horizon shortens or withdrawal needs approach.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    27%
  • Financials
    13%
  • Industrials
    9%
  • Telecommunications
    8%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    7%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is well spread with technology leading followed by financials industrials communication services and a healthy mix of defensives like healthcare and consumer staples plus smaller allocations to energy materials utilities and real estate. This allocation is well‑balanced and aligns closely with global standards leaning slightly toward growth areas. Tech‑heavy portfolios can be more sensitive to interest rate moves or sentiment around innovation so swings may feel sharper at times. The positive news is that no single sector besides tech dominates excessively. It could still be useful to check whether the purposeful tilt toward innovation themes matches your comfort level and consider slowly trimming if you’d prefer a steadier more income‑oriented sector balance.

Regions Info

  • North America
    71%
  • Europe Developed
    6%
  • Asia Developed
    5%
  • Asia Emerging
    4%
  • Japan
    2%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Europe Emerging
    0%

Geographically the portfolio is strongly anchored in North America at about 71% with the rest spread across developed Europe Asia Japan and small slices in emerging regions. This home‑bias pattern is common versus global benchmarks and has been rewarded in recent years as US markets outperformed. However it also ties results more closely to the fortunes of a single region including its policy shifts currency moves and sector makeup. The emerging markets and non‑US developed allocation does add useful diversification but remains secondary. Periodically revisiting whether you want a more global balance and nudging some new contributions toward international and emerging exposure could help spread long‑term risk without needing big disruptive trades.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    38%
  • Large-cap
    31%
  • Mid-cap
    11%
  • Unknown
    3%
  • Small-cap
    1%
  • Micro-cap
    0%

By market capitalization the portfolio is dominated by mega and big companies with only modest exposure to mid and smaller firms. Large firms usually have more stable earnings stronger balance sheets and deeper liquidity which often suits cautious investors seeking resilience in downturns. The trade‑off is that very large companies may sometimes grow more slowly than successful smaller ones though with lower failure risk. This tilt also explains why drawdowns have stayed relatively contained despite the high equity share. If you want a bit more long‑term growth potential and can tolerate extra bumps you might channel future contributions slightly toward strategies that naturally include more mid‑size companies while keeping the current large‑cap core intact.

Redundant positions Info

  • iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF
    BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation
    iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
    iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
    iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF
    iShares S&P 100 ETF
    High correlation

Several holdings especially the US equity and factor ETFs move very similarly because they all lean on overlapping large US companies. Correlation is a measure of how often investments go up or down together; when correlation is high the diversification benefit is smaller during market stress. Your portfolio still counts as broadly diversified but there is clear redundancy between some growth value quality momentum and broad‑market US funds. Simplifying that cluster into fewer core positions while keeping the same overall US equity weight could make the portfolio easier to manage and marginally more efficient. This type of streamlining typically doesn’t change risk much but can reduce complexity and avoid paying twice for similar exposures.

Dividends Info

  • Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF 0.20%
  • BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation 1.00%
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 3.70%
  • iShares Core International Aggregate Bond ETF 3.20%
  • iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 2.40%
  • iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF 4.10%
  • iShares S&P 500 Value ETF 1.50%
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
  • iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF 0.40%
  • iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF 0.90%
  • iShares S&P 100 ETF 0.80%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF 0.90%
  • iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 4.00%
  • Global X Funds 0.30%
  • iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF 4.10%
  • iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF 0.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.62%

The overall dividend yield sits around 1.6% which is quite typical for a growth‑tilted diversified portfolio. Yield is boosted mainly by bond ETFs and international value exposure while several growth and thematic funds pay very little income. Dividends can be handy for steady cash flow but reinvesting them is often powerful for compounding especially when you don’t need the money immediately. For someone prioritizing capital growth this setup is sensible and aligns with common best practices. If reliable income becomes a bigger goal later you could slowly increase exposure to higher‑yielding bond or equity strategies but there’s no urgent need to change while your main focus is long‑term wealth building.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF 0.68%
  • BlackRock US Equity Factor Rotation 0.30%
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 0.34%
  • iShares Core International Aggregate Bond ETF 0.07%
  • iShares Gold Trust 0.25%
  • iShares Bitcoin Trust 0.12%
  • iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 0.09%
  • iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF 0.06%
  • iShares S&P 500 Value ETF 0.18%
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF 0.18%
  • iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF 0.15%
  • iShares S&P 100 ETF 0.20%
  • iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF 0.15%
  • iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 0.07%
  • Global X Funds 0.50%
  • iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF 0.15%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.19%

The weighted total expense ratio around 0.19% is impressively low considering the mix of smart‑beta and thematic ETFs. This keeps more of the gross return in your pocket and supports better long‑term performance versus more expensive portfolios. A few holdings notably the AI and thematic funds and some Global X strategies charge higher fees but they are small slices so they don’t drag much on overall costs. The core iShares funds provide a cheap backbone which is a real strength. Over decades even a 0.2–0.3% cost edge can compound into a noticeable difference so maintaining this low‑fee mindset and favoring broad affordable funds remains a solid approach.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Efficient Frontier analysis looks for the best possible trade‑off between risk and return using only your existing building blocks. “Efficient” here simply means getting the highest expected return for a given level of volatility not maximizing diversification or meeting income targets. The results suggest that by trimming overlapping US factor and broad‑market positions and tweaking weights you could reach a slightly higher expected return at the same risk level. That’s a positive sign the ingredients are strong but a bit redundant. Focusing first on consolidation of highly correlated US equity funds then nudging weights toward the more efficient mix over time could refine performance without changing your overall risk classification.

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