The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Balanced Investors
This portfolio suits an investor with a balanced risk profile who is nevertheless open to higher risk for potentially greater rewards. The significant allocation to equities and cryptocurrencies indicates a preference for growth and an acceptance of the volatility these assets can bring. It's best suited for those with a long-term investment horizon, who can weather short-term market fluctuations in pursuit of substantial long-term gains.
The portfolio is predominantly invested in equities, with a 70% allocation in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, and a 20% allocation in the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares, providing broad exposure to the US and international stock markets. A notable 10% of the portfolio is invested in the iShares Bitcoin Trust, indicating a tilt towards higher risk and potential reward through cryptocurrency exposure. This composition suggests a strategy that balances traditional equity investments with a significant, albeit riskier, allocation to digital assets.
Historically, the portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.36%, with a maximum drawdown of -18.56%. This performance indicates a strong upward trend over time, albeit with significant volatility, as evidenced by the drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to just 14 suggests that the portfolio's gains are highly concentrated in short, sporadic bursts, typical of high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies.
Monte Carlo simulations project a wide range of potential outcomes, from a 5th percentile growth of 298.7% to a 67th percentile growth of 5,366.8%, with an annualized return across all simulations at 33.32%. This significant range underscores the high uncertainty and potential for both substantial gains and losses, reflecting the portfolio's aggressive growth orientation and the inherent volatility of its cryptocurrency component.
The asset class distribution shows a heavy emphasis on stocks (89%) and a smaller allocation to other assets (10%), presumably the cryptocurrency, with a minimal cash holding (1%). This allocation supports the portfolio's growth objectives but also increases its susceptibility to market fluctuations, particularly in the equity and cryptocurrency markets.
Sector allocation is well-diversified across technology (27%), financial services (14%), and consumer cyclicals (10%), among others, reflecting a balanced approach to sector exposure. However, the heavy weighting in technology may contribute to higher volatility, given this sector's sensitivity to market swings and interest rate changes.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America (71%), with modest exposure to developed Europe (8%), Asia, and other regions. This geographic distribution suggests a focus on more stable, developed markets, though it may limit potential gains from emerging markets.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for larger companies (Mega 38%, Big 27%) over smaller ones (Medium 17%, Small 5%, Micro 2%). This orientation towards larger, potentially more stable companies may help mitigate some of the portfolio's risk associated with its cryptocurrency investment.
The portfolio's dividend yield is relatively modest, with the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares yielding 1.10% and the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares yielding 2.70%, for a combined yield of 1.31%. This yield reflects the portfolio's growth focus over income generation.
The portfolio benefits from low costs, with Total Expense Ratios (TER) of 0.03% for the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, 0.05% for the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares, and 0.12% for the iShares Bitcoin Trust, averaging to an overall TER of 0.04%. These low costs are advantageous for long-term growth.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Given the portfolio's current composition and performance, optimization could involve evaluating the risk-return trade-off of the cryptocurrency allocation. While it contributes to potential high returns, its volatility also increases the portfolio's overall risk. Adjusting this allocation could enhance the portfolio's efficiency on the Efficient Frontier, potentially achieving a more favorable risk-return balance.
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