High growth tilted US stock portfolio with strong tech bias and concentrated risk profile
Report created on Mar 18, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Growth Investors
An investor aligned with this kind of portfolio is usually comfortable with big swings in value in pursuit of higher long-term growth. They often have a long investment horizon, think 10–20 years or more, and do not rely on portfolio income for near-term spending. Their goals might include building substantial wealth, funding retirement far in the future, or aggressively growing a taxable or retirement account. Risk tolerance is above average: short-term losses of 30% or more are acceptable as long as the long-run outlook stays attractive. They generally prefer simplicity, low costs, and a strong belief in the long-term prospects of innovative growth companies.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 55.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 30.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 15.00%
This portfolio is extremely focused and simple: three US equity ETFs, all growth-leaning, with 100% in stocks and no bonds or cash buffer. Over half sits in a broad total US market fund, about a third in large-cap growth, and the rest in a dedicated semiconductor ETF. That structure pushes the overall profile firmly into “growth” territory, with low diversification because everything is tied to the same underlying market drivers. This kind of concentration can be powerful when markets and growth companies do well, but it also means the whole portfolio tends to move in the same direction at the same time, amplifying both gains and losses.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.26% is extremely strong, comfortably ahead of long-term averages for broad US or global stock benchmarks. CAGR shows the “per year on average” growth, smoothing out the bumps. The max drawdown of -33.50% highlights that large temporary losses have occurred and can happen again, which is typical for aggressive, equity-only portfolios. Needing just 42 days to make up 90% of returns shows performance was driven by a handful of powerful up days. Missing those days would hurt results, reinforcing why staying invested through volatility is crucial for this sort of growth-focused setup.
Projection
The Monte Carlo analysis runs 1,000 simulated future paths using historical return and volatility patterns, then shows a range of possible outcomes. At the 5th percentile, the portfolio ends up at roughly 250.9% of today’s value; at the median (50th), about 1,562.5%; and at the 67th percentile, around 2,338.0%. The average simulated annual return of 24.86% is very high, but it’s based on past data, which may not repeat, especially for such a growth-heavy mix. Monte Carlo scenarios are useful for seeing best- and worst-case ranges, but they’re not predictions; future markets can be kinder or harsher than any simulation suggests.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset allocation is as straightforward as it gets: 100% in stocks, 0% in bonds, 0% in cash, and no alternatives. Compared to many diversified benchmarks that include bonds or other stabilizers, this is a pure equity growth stance. That is well-aligned with a “Profile_Growth” risk label and can be very effective for long horizons, but it raises short-term risk and drawdown potential. With no defensive ballast, any major stock market downturn will hit full-force. The key implication is that this structure is most suitable when there is both a long time horizon and the emotional ability to ride out deep, multi-year equity drawdowns without panic selling.
Sectors
- Technology 46%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Financials 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 7%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector exposure is dominated by technology at 46%, with additional growth-tilted weight in communication services and consumer cyclicals. Remaining exposure is spread thinly across financials, healthcare, industrials, and smaller allocations to defensives like consumer staples, energy, and utilities. Compared to common broad-market benchmarks, this is clearly tech- and growth-heavy. That can be a powerful tailwind when innovation and productivity themes drive markets, but it can hurt during periods of rising interest rates, tighter regulation, or tech-specific downturns. The semiconductor ETF magnifies sensitivity to cyclical demand and capital-expenditure cycles, making sector risk a major driver of overall portfolio behavior.
Regions
- North America 97%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America (97%), with only marginal exposure to developed Asia and Europe and almost nothing in emerging markets. This is even more US-centric than many global benchmarks, which typically hold a meaningful slice in non-US markets. Heavy US focus has been a plus over the last decade as US equities, especially growth, outperformed many regions. But it also ties outcomes closely to the US economy, policy, and currency. If non-US markets enjoy a period of relative outperformance, this portfolio is unlikely to fully participate, which is the tradeoff that comes with such a strong home-market tilt.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 49%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap exposure is skewed toward the largest companies: about 49% in mega caps and another 30% in big caps, with modest slices in mid, small, and micro caps. This large-cap dominance is consistent with US growth and broad-market ETFs, but the tilt is even stronger due to the concentration in mega-cap tech. Large caps tend to be more stable and established than small caps, but they can be more sensitive to macro trends, regulation, and index crowding. The smaller presence in small and micro caps means less exposure to the potential higher long-term growth (and volatility) those segments sometimes offer, keeping the portfolio’s risk centered on big names.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.69%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 6.14%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.71%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.65%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.24%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.86%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.55%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.27%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 1.64%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 38.96%
Looking through the ETFs, there is heavy overlap in mega-cap tech and growth names, especially NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. NVIDIA alone is about 9.7% of the total portfolio via multiple funds, while Apple exceeds 6%. This duplication creates hidden concentration: even though there are only three ETFs, the actual risk leans heavily on a small group of big tech and semiconductor companies. Overlap stats are based on ETF top 10s only, so true concentration is likely even higher. The big takeaway is that diversification is less than it appears from the number of holdings, because many underlying stocks repeat across ETFs.
Factors
Factor exposure shows strong tilts to size, momentum, and low volatility, with value relatively low and no clear data on quality or yield. Factors are like the underlying “ingredients” that shape returns: for example, momentum favors stocks that have been trending up, while size here mostly reflects large-cap exposure. A momentum tilt can boost returns during strong, persistent uptrends but may suffer when markets suddenly reverse. The low volatility tilt offers some cushion versus the most speculative names, though overall risk is still high given the sector and equity-only profile. Limited signal coverage (around 52.5%) means some exposures are estimated with less precision and should be interpreted with modest caution.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 55.00% 48.0% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 30.00% 30.8% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 15.00% 21.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to overall volatility, which can differ from simple weight. The total-market ETF is 55% of the portfolio but contributes about 48% of risk, slightly less than its weight. The large-cap growth ETF’s risk contribution (about 31%) is in line with its 30% weight. The standout is the semiconductor ETF: at only 15% weight it contributes over 21% of total risk, with a risk-to-weight ratio of 1.42. That means it punches far above its size in driving ups and downs. This concentration is intentional for growth, but it’s worth recognizing that trimming or resizing this slice would have an outsized impact on overall volatility.
Redundant positions
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High correlationSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETFVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Correlation measures how assets move together; values near 1 mean they usually move in the same direction. Here, the Schwab large-cap growth ETF and the Vanguard total-market ETF are highly correlated, which makes sense because they both track overlapping sets of big US stocks. Highly correlated holdings offer limited diversification benefit: they rise and fall together, so combining them doesn’t smooth the ride much. The semiconductor ETF may diversify slightly at times, but as a cyclical, growth-heavy segment it still tends to be strongly tied to the broader equity cycle. In practice, this means the portfolio behaves much like a leveraged bet on US growth equities rather than a broad mix of independent risk sources.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
On the risk–return chart, the portfolio would likely sit below the efficient frontier built from its current holdings, mainly because of overlapping, highly correlated US growth exposure. The efficient frontier represents the best possible return for each risk level using only these three ETFs in different weights. If the current mix is below that curve, simply reweighting—without adding new products—could improve the Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk. For instance, dialing back the highest-risk contributor (the semiconductor ETF) or reducing overlap between the two broad US funds could move the portfolio closer to the optimal point at the same or lower volatility.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.77%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is 0.77%, with the total-market ETF providing most of that income and the growth and semiconductor ETFs yielding very little. This is typical for growth-focused strategies, where companies often reinvest profits rather than paying them out. For investors prioritizing capital appreciation over income, a low yield can be perfectly fine and even desirable. However, it does mean that returns will rely mainly on price gains, not cash flow, which can feel less “steady” during flat or choppy markets. Anyone hoping to fund spending from portfolio income alone would likely find this yield too low without selling shares to supplement it.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio (TER) around 0.08% across the three ETFs. That is well below the average for actively managed funds and even better than many low-cost passive mixes. Lower fees matter because they come out every year, regardless of performance; keeping them minimal lets more of the portfolio’s returns compound over time. This alignment with cost best practices is a real strength of the setup. From an efficiency standpoint, the fee structure is already excellent, so any future tweaks to improve the portfolio are more likely to come from adjusting exposures and diversification rather than chasing further cost reductions.
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