The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Your portfolio composition is primarily focused on the stock market, with a significant leaning towards technology. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF and the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF together make up 70% of your portfolio, indicating a strong preference for broad market exposure. However, this also reveals a low level of diversification, as these funds may hold overlapping positions, particularly in large and mega-cap stocks. The inclusion of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF adds a focus on dividend-paying and tech stocks, respectively, but does little to diversify risk across different asset classes or sectors.
Historically, your portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.87%, with a maximum drawdown of -24.20%. This performance is commendable, showcasing the potential for high returns albeit with significant volatility. The days contributing most to returns highlight the impact of short-term gains, which is typical for stock-heavy portfolios. While past performance is promising, it's crucial to remember that it does not guarantee future results, especially given the narrow diversification which could expose the portfolio to sector-specific downturns.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project potential future outcomes, suggest a wide range of possible performances for your portfolio. With the majority of simulations indicating positive returns and a median projected increase of 497.1%, the outlook seems optimistic. However, the spread from the 5th to the 67th percentile underscores the risk involved. These projections are helpful for understanding potential volatility but should be taken with caution as they cannot predict unforeseen market shifts.
The allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks (99%), with a minimal cash reserve (1%). This allocation is typical for investors seeking growth but comes with higher volatility. Diversifying across more asset classes, such as bonds or real estate, could provide a buffer against stock market fluctuations and reduce portfolio volatility. This adjustment could be particularly beneficial for balancing risk and return, especially during market downturns.
Your portfolio's sector allocation shows a strong emphasis on technology, which comprises 28% of the investment. While the tech sector has historically offered substantial growth opportunities, this concentration increases vulnerability to sector-specific risks. Financial Services, Consumer Cyclicals, and Healthcare also have significant weightings, contributing to a somewhat balanced sector exposure. However, expanding into underrepresented sectors or reducing tech concentration could mitigate risk and potentially smooth out returns over time.
Geographic exposure is predominantly North American (79%), with no direct investment in emerging markets or developed markets outside of North America. This geographic concentration could limit exposure to global growth opportunities and increase susceptibility to regional economic downturns. Diversifying geographically, particularly by increasing exposure to developed and emerging markets outside North America, could enhance potential returns and reduce risk.
The portfolio's market capitalization exposure leans heavily towards big (37%) and mega (35%) cap stocks, with less emphasis on medium, small, and micro caps. This skew towards larger companies is generally seen as less risky but may also limit growth potential compared to smaller, more agile companies. Considering a more balanced approach across market caps could introduce more growth opportunities and diversification benefits.
The high correlation between the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares and the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares indicates overlapping investments, which diminishes the diversification benefit of holding both. This redundancy suggests an opportunity to reallocate funds from one of these ETFs into assets that offer genuine diversification, enhancing the portfolio's risk-adjusted returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing your portfolio along the Efficient Frontier could enhance your risk-return profile. Currently, the high correlation between certain assets suggests that your portfolio might not be positioned optimally. By reallocating investments to reduce overlap and increase diversification across uncorrelated assets, you could achieve a more efficient distribution of risk and potential return. This process involves analyzing current holdings and potentially introducing new assets to move the portfolio closer to the Efficient Frontier, where each unit of risk is expected to be compensated with maximum return.
Your portfolio's dividend strategy, with a total yield of 1.75%, contributes to its attractiveness by offering a steady income stream in addition to potential capital gains. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, with its 3.80% yield, stands out as a significant contributor. While dividends are an essential aspect of total returns, especially in volatile markets, it's crucial to balance the search for yield with the need for growth and diversification.
The Total Expense Ratio (TER) across your portfolio averages to 0.06%, which is impressively low and supports better long-term performance by minimizing the drag on returns. Keeping costs low is a fundamental principle of successful long-term investing, and your portfolio aligns well with this strategy. However, always consider the balance between cost and the quality or performance of the investment.
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